Express Entry’s Targeted Occupations : How Many Trades Workers Does Canada Really Need?
Express Entry’s Targeted Occupations : How Many Trades Workers Does Canada Really Need?
Trades are one of five occupational sectors prioritized by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) for Express Entry category-based draws in 2023.
The Canadian federal government established Express Entry category-based drawings earlier in 2023 as a strategy of leveraging immigration to solve labour market shortfalls in five key job categories*.
*Healthcare, science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), transportation, trades, and agriculture/agri-food are among the 2023 Express Entry categories.
To assist important job sectors with some of the country’s worst labour market needs, IRCC established category-based Express Entry selection drawings earlier this year.
The first-ever category-based draw for Express Entry took place on June 28 and – as of the time of writing – there have been four more category-based draws for these five occupational groups since then.
The emphasis placed on a candidate’s Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores is the fundamental distinction between “standard” Express Entry draws and the new category-based draws. While traditional drawings utilize CRS scores to rank candidates, newer draws target individuals with relevant work experience.
Why were trades selected as a targeted Express Entry category?
Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) states that “skilled trades are in high demand, rewarding, and essential to communities across Canada.” Furthermore, ESDC estimates that more than 256,000 new apprentices will be required over the next five years to meet nationwide demand for skilled crafts labour.
Furthermore, “the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum estimates that over 122,000 new journeypersons will be required to sustain workforce certification across Red Seal trades in Canada” between 2022 and 2026, according to a Government of Canada news release from August of this year.
The Red Seal program creates standards and exams for Red Seal trades. A tradesperson who passes the Red Seal exam is awarded a Red Seal endorsement, which certifies that they have reached the national standard in their trade.
These projections and estimates, taken together, demonstrate why the Canadian government has chosen to prioritize the immigration of applicants with work experience in trade occupations through category-based draws this year.
How many skilled workers does Canada really require?
In addition to the demand predictions provided by the ESDC and the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum, BuildForce Canada estimates that the construction industry in Canada will need to hire 299,200 new workers by 2032. This forecast is based on the fact that 20% of the 2022 labour force (245,100 workers) is likely to retire shortly.
ESDC also runs an online tool known as the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). When looking at the occupational future for “trades helpers and labourers,” this tool predicts that employment vacancies will increase by roughly 20,000 between 2022 and 2031.
More specifically, the following describes how four distinct factors are likely to contribute to new job vacancies in this occupational category in the coming years.
The “expansion demand” will account for 3,400 (17%) of employment vacancies.
“Retirements” will generate 11,800 (60%) job opportunities.
“Other replacement demand” will account for 1,800 (9%) of job opportunities.
“Emigration” will account for 2,600 (13%) of the employment opportunities.
These data suggest that Canada will need thousands of new workers in skilled craft vocations to help address the industry’s manpower shortages.
What opportunities does this create for prospective Canadian immigrants?
According to the Express Entry 2022 year-end report, immigration candidates with trades experience were among the top beneficiaries of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residence in Canada last year.
Cooks were specifically among the top 15 primary jobs of Canadian immigrants who earned an ITA in 2022. This continues a pattern that began in 2021. People in this occupation were among the top five ITA grantees by primary occupation that year.
This can be interpreted as an indication that, even before the implementation of category-based draws, the federal government intended to welcome immigrants capable of filling labour market vacancies in skilled trades.
Add to that a poignant comment from last year by Ahmed Hussen, Canada’s Minister of Housing, Diversity, and Inclusion until July 2023, emphasizing the existence of major employment prospects for Canadian immigrants in the trades industry.
“We actually need more people, skilled immigrants, to help us in the building trades and the construction sector of our economy,” Hussen said, referring to the need for qualified immigrants to help Canada’s housing issue. We need those employees to come in and assist us in building the housing that Canadians require.”
This gives cause to expect that prospective Canadian immigrants with recent employment experience in skilled trades may be able to create significant careers if they come to this nation through category-based Express Entry draws for trade occupations.
The Evolution of Trades To date, there have been no Express Entry draws.
IRCC has only issued one batch of invitations to Express Entry candidates with recent work experience in trades occupations.
This draw took place on August 3, and 1,500 immigrants with trades expertise were encouraged to apply for permanent residence in Canada. Candidates in this draw have to have a CRS of 388 or above to be considered.
Data acquired from IRCC by the Globe and Mail just days before this Trades category-based draw indicated that category-based draws for persons with experience working in trades occupations will account for “three to four” percent of all ITAs given under Express Entry for the remainder of this calendar year.
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